I just read a good summary post on ribot.co.uk about David Marcus' mobile talk. For me there are many open questions, so I want to spread out some thoughts.

Mobile Content vs. Web Content
What is mobile content? Is it necessary to distinguish between these two? People and companies say mobile content is worth billions but web content has to be delivered for free in most cases. Why do consumers have so different views or perspectives on similar information products?

Are mobile contents mainly ring tones and SMS and all information products that are closely connected/bound to your mobile device and useless in other environments? Or is it just the content produced with a mobile phone and thus it is more valuable and specific, like instantaneously published and delivered pictures taken with your cell phone camera while on holidays. The first is a more traditional perspective and the latter the new evolving perspective by utilizing the Internet and its services as a way to deliver a better experiences and more powerful applications.

For SMS and ring tones it is a situation where the carriers have all the power over their networks and they try to keep the system closed to keep the revenue stream as high as possible. In this way, it is easier to monetize and market forces have not shown their best results for consumers. This situation is going to change. Why not replace SMS as the lowest common denominator that is used for so many years with e-mails or direct Twitter messages, for example. Create mobile mailing lists, filter/forwarding rules, more interactive messages, better multimedia support,... There are many advantages that will become obvious at one point. Same for ring tones that can be replaced by MP3s. Why pay more for a ring tone than a mp3 on ITunes? The good thing, the new openness of mobile phones facilitating the open Internet infrastructure reduces prices for consumers. Web and mobile will merge together. Mobile Operators are not supporting this trend, as all long-established companies protect their market position with all forces. This is the reason why everyone is waiting for the mobile revolution but no one can predict a breakthrough at a specific time.

Will there be a creative destruction?
"The economist Joseph Schumpeter popularized and used the term to describe the process of transformation that accompanies radical innovation. In Schumpeter's vision of capitalism, innovative entry by entrepreneurs was the force that sustained long-term economic growth, even as it destroyed the value of established companies that enjoyed some degree of monopoly power." Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

It is difficult to judge, so let's just wait as always. At LIFT we learned change is going on all the time, so maybe 2009 is the year of mobile?